2024 , Vol. 21 >Issue 02: 143 - 150
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3877/cma.j.issn.1672-6448.2024.02.006
超声结合临床病理指标模型对T1-2期乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移的预测价值
Copy editor: 汪荣
收稿日期: 2023-08-29
网络出版日期: 2024-04-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金面上项目(82071934)
陕西省科技计划项目国合重点项目(2020KWZ-022)
陕西省高等教育教学改革研究重点项目(21JZ009)
空军军医大学临床研究项目(2021LC2210)
版权
Predictive value of a model developed based on ultrasonic features combined with clinicopathological indicators for axillary lymph node metastasis in patients with T1-2 breast cancer
Received date: 2023-08-29
Online published: 2024-04-25
Copyright
应用超声特征及临床病理指标构建列线图模型,探讨其对T1、T2期乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的预测价值。
纳入2021年1月至2022年9月于西京医院诊治的经病理证实为T1、T2期乳腺癌的患者354例,根据腋窝淋巴结病理状态将其分为转移组125例与非转移组229例。采用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析筛选独立预测因素,构建腋窝超声模型及综合模型(腋窝超声特征+乳腺超声特征+临床病理指标)。绘制ROC曲线评估模型的预测效能并通过Delong检验比较预测效能;绘制综合模型的列线图并通过Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线、临床决策曲线分别评估模型的拟合优度、校准度及临床效用。
淋巴结长短径比值、淋巴结形态分型、肿瘤最大径、结构扭曲、体质量指数(BMI)、组织学分级、雌激素受体(ER)为腋窝淋巴结转移的独立预测因素(均P<0.05)。腋窝超声模型、综合模型的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.741(95%CI: 0.684~0.758)、0.812(95%CI: 0.767~0.858),综合模型的预测效能优于腋窝超声模型(Z=3.547,P<0.001)。
在腋窝超声基础上结合乳腺癌超声特征和临床病理指标构建列线图模型,能够提升腋窝淋巴结转移的诊断性能,为乳腺癌的分期、预后和治疗提供有效参考。
蔡林利 , 宋宏萍 , 巨艳 , 党晓智 , 韩铭 , 肖迎聪 . 超声结合临床病理指标模型对T1-2期乳腺癌腋窝淋巴结转移的预测价值[J]. 中华医学超声杂志(电子版), 2024 , 21(02) : 143 -150 . DOI: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.1672-6448.2024.02.006
To construct a nomogram based on ultrasonic features and clinicopathological indicators and to explore its predictive value for axillary lymph node metastasis in patients with T1-2 breast cancer.
A total of 354 patients with histopathologically confirmed T1-2 breast cancer admitted to Xijing Hospital from January 2021 to September 2022 were included. According to whether there was axillary lymph node metastasis, the patients were divided into a metastatic group of 125 cases and a non-metastatic group of 229 cases. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen independent predictors, and the axillary ultrasound model and comprehensive model (axillary ultrasound features + breast ultrasound features + clinicopathological indicators) were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the models, and the predictive efficiency was compared by the Delong's test. A nomogram of the comprehensive model was plotted, and the goodness of fit, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test as well as calibration curve and decision curve analyses.
The ratio of long diameter to short diameter of lymph nodes, morphological typing of lymph nodes, maximum tumor diameter, architectural distortion, body mass index, histological grade, and estrogen receptor status were identified to be independent predictors of axillary lymph node metastasis (P<0.05 for all). The areas under the ROC curves of the axillary ultrasound model and the comprehensive model were 0.741 (0.684-0.758) and 0.812 (0.767-0.858), respectively. The prediction efficiency of the comprehensive model was greater than that of the axillary ultrasound model (Z=3.5472, P<0.001).
The nomogram developed based on axillary ultrasonic features combined with clinicopathological indicators of breast cancer can improve the diagnostic efficiency for axillary lymph nodes metastasis, and provide effective reference for the staging, prognosis, and treatment of breast cancer.
Key words: Breast cancer; Lymph node metastasis; Ultrasonography; Pathology
图1 乳腺癌伴腋窝淋巴结转移患者的超声及病理图像。图a为乳腺肿块灰阶图像,显示肿块位于外下象限,最大径为2.0 cm;图b为乳腺肿块彩色多普勒图像,显示肿块内部血供;图c为腋窝淋巴结灰阶图像,显示形态分型为5型;图d为HE染色显示病理类型为浸润性微乳头状癌(×200);图e~h为免疫组化分别显示ER阳性(×200)、PR阳性(×200)、HER-2阴性(×200)、Ki67低表达(×200) |
图2 乳腺癌不伴腋窝淋巴结转移患者的超声及病理图像。图a为乳腺肿块灰阶图像,显示肿块位于内上象限,最大径为2.3 cm;图b为乳腺肿块彩色多普勒图像,显示肿块内部血供;图c为腋窝淋巴结灰阶图像,显示形态分型为2型;图d为HE染色显示病理类型为伴髓样特征的浸润性癌(×200);图e~h为免疫组化分别显示ER阴性(×200)、PR阴性(×200)、HER-2阴性(×200)、Ki67高表达(×200) |
表1 腋窝淋巴结转移组与未转移组乳腺癌患者的基线特征[例(%)] |
基线资料 | 总计(n=354) | 未转移组(n=229) | 转移组(n=125) | 统计值 | P 值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄[岁,M(Q1,Q3)] | 51(45,61) | 50(46,61) | 51(45,63) | Z=0.238 | 0.812 |
肿瘤最大径[cm,M(Q1,Q3)] | 1.9(1.4,2.5) | 1.8(1.3,2.3) | 2.3(1.6,2.9) | Z=3.888 | <0.001 |
绝经状态 | χ2=0.037 | 0.911 | |||
绝经前 | 159(44.9) | 102(44.5) | 57(45.6) | ||
绝经后 | 195(55.1) | 127(55.5) | 68(54.4) | ||
BMI [kg/m2,M(Q1,Q3)] | 23.1(21.5,25.0) | 22.8(21.5,24.6) | 23.9(21.5,26.2) | Z=2.299 | 0.022 |
病理类型 | χ2=0.659 | 0.761 | |||
浸润性导管癌 | 314(88.7) | 201(87.8) | 113(90.4) | ||
浸润性小叶癌 | 12(3.4) | 8(3.5) | 4(3.2) | ||
其他类型 | 28(7.9) | 20(8.7) | 8(6.4) | ||
组织学分级 | χ2=7.224 | 0.027 | |||
1级 | 40(11.3) | 33(14.4) | 7(5.6) | ||
2级 | 251(70.9) | 160(69.9) | 91(72.8) | ||
3级 | 63(17.8) | 36(15.7) | 27(21.6) | ||
ER | χ2=4.449 | 0.050 | |||
阴性 | 39(11.0) | 31(13.5) | 8(6.4) | ||
阳性 | 315(89.0) | 198(86.5) | 117(93.6) | ||
PR | χ2=3.030 | 0.100 | |||
阴性 | 59(16.7) | 44(19.2) | 15(12.0) | ||
阳性 | 295(83.3) | 185(80.8) | 110(88.0) | ||
HER-2 | χ2=5.269 | 0.069 | |||
阴性 | 235(66.4) | 150(65.5) | 85(68.0) | ||
阳性 | 30(8.5) | 25(10.9) | 5(4.0) | ||
不确定 | 89(25.1) | 54(23.6) | 35(28.0) | ||
Ki67 | χ2=1.082 | 0.350 | |||
<14% | 79(22.3) | 55(24.0) | 24(19.2) | ||
≥14% | 275(77.7) | 174(76.0) | 101(80.8) |
注:BMI为体质量指数;ER为雌激素受体;PR为孕激素受体;HER-2为人表皮生长因子受体2;Ki67为细胞增殖核抗原 |
表2 乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的单因素Logistic回归分析结果 |
因素 | OR值(95%CI) | P值 | 因素 | OR值(95%CI) | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄 | 边缘 | ||||
≤45 | 1 | 光整 | 1 | ||
>45 | 0.788(0.484~1283) | 0.338 | 不光整 | 1.282(0.326~5.048) | 0.722 |
肿瘤最大径 | 1.732(1.338~2.241) | <0.001 | 内部回声 | 0.603 | |
绝经状态 | 低回声 | 1 | |||
绝经前 | 1 | 等回声 | 0.445(0.049~4.027) | 0.471 | |
绝经后 | 0.958(0.618~1.485) | 0.848 | 囊实性复合回声 | 0.485(0.133~1.774) | 0.274 |
BMI | 1.111(1.029~1.199) | 0.008 | 不均匀回声 | 1.335(0.294~6.065) | 0.709 |
病理类型 | 0.728 | 后方回声 | 0.035 | ||
浸润性导管癌 | 1 | 无改变 | 1 | ||
浸润性小叶癌 | 0.889(0.262~3.019) | 0.851 | 增强 | 0.782(0.361~1.295) | 0.534 |
其他类型 | 0.712(0.304~1.667) | 0.433 | 声影 | 1.953(1.055~3.617) | 0.033 |
组织学分级 | 0.034 | 混合性 | 8.138(0.896~73.908) | 0.063 | |
1级 | 1 | 钙化 | |||
2级 | 2.681(1.140~6.306) | 0.024 | 无 | 1 | |
3级 | 3.536(1.359~9.198) | 0.010 | 有 | 1.176(0.728~1.901 | 0.507 |
ER | 结构扭曲 | ||||
阴性 | 1 | 无 | 1 | ||
阳性 | 2.290(1.018~5.148) | 0.045 | 有 | 2.235(1.116~4.477) | 0.023 |
PR | 导管改变 | ||||
阴性 | 1 | 无 | 1 | ||
阳性 | 1.744(0.927~3.281) | 0.084 | 有 | 0.756(0.321~1.780) | 0.522 |
HER-2 | 0.087 | 血流 | 0.240 | ||
阴性 | 1 | 无血供 | 1 | ||
阳性 | 0.353(0.130~0.956) | 0.040 | 内部血供 | 1.153(0.208~6.395) | 0.871 |
不确定 | 1.144(0.693~1.889) | 0.600 | 边缘血供 | 0.480(0.071~3.264) | 0.453 |
Ki67 | 内部及边缘血供 | 2.000(0.224~17.894) | 0.535 | ||
<14% | 1 | 弹性评分 | |||
≥14% | 1.007(0.995~1.018) | 0.258 | ≤3 | 1 | |
象限 | >3 | 1.415(0.598~3.346) | 0.429 | ||
外上 | 1 | 淋巴结长短径比值 | |||
其他 | 1.032(0.665~1.601) | 0.889 | >2 | 1 | |
方位 | ≤2 | 2.858(1.744~4.685) | <0.001 | ||
平行 | 1 | 淋巴结形态分型 | <0.001 | ||
不平行 | 1.019(0.455~2.282) | 0.963 | 1-2型 | 1 | |
形态 | 3-4型 | 1.786(0.934~3.415) | 0.080 | ||
规则 | 1 | 5-6型 | 11.508(6.213~21.316) | <0.001 | |
不规则 | 1.646(0.169~15.992) | 0.667 |
注:BMI为体质量指数;ER为雌激素受体;PR为孕激素受体;HER-2为人表皮生长因子受体2;Ki67为细胞增殖核抗原 |
表3 乳腺癌患者腋窝淋巴结转移的多因素Logistic回归分析结果 |
因素 | B值 | SE值 | Wald χ2值 | OR值(95%CI) | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
腋窝超声因素 | |||||
淋巴结长短径比值≤2 | 0.597 | 0.288 | 4.306 | 1.817(1.034~3.192) | 0.038 |
淋巴结形态分型 | 51.089 | <0.001 | |||
1-2型 | 1 | ||||
3-4型 | 0.489 | 0.336 | 2.117 | 1.631(0.844~3.153) | 0.146 |
5-6型 | 2.293 | 0.321 | 50.880 | 9.904(5.274~18.596) | <0.001 |
综合因素 | |||||
淋巴结长短径比值≤2 | 0.651 | 0.306 | 4.535 | 1.917(1.053~3.490) | 0.013 |
淋巴结形态分型 | 44.459 | <0.001 | |||
1-2型 | 1 | ||||
3-4型 | 0.446 | 0.358 | 1.554 | 1.563(0.775~3.152) | 0.213 |
5-6型 | 2.368 | 0.357 | 44.064 | 10.674(5.305~21.475) | <0.001 |
肿瘤最大径 | 0.394 | 0.160 | 6.047 | 1.483(1.083~2.030) | 0.014 |
结构扭曲 | 0.935 | 0.433 | 4.664 | 2.546(1.090~5.946) | 0.031 |
BMI | 0.097 | 0.045 | 4.655 | 1.102(1.009~1.203) | 0.310 |
组织学分级 | 6.208 | 0.045 | |||
1级 | 1 | ||||
2级 | 1.050 | 0.503 | 4.364 | 2.857(1.067~7.651) | 0.037 |
3级 | 1.484 | 0.598 | 6.151 | 4.410(1.365~14.245) | 0.013 |
ER阳性 | 1.639 | 0.543 | 9.111 | 5.152(1.777~14.940) | 0.003 |
注:BMI为体质量指数;ER为雌激素受体;B为回归系数;SE为标准误;OR为优势比 |
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